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GMOS Weather Publications

GMOS Weather Conference Publications

  • Huntemann, T. L., M. J. Schenk, P. Fajman, 2014: Verification of precipitating weather type forecasts in the National Digital Forecast Database and National Digital Guidance Database. Preprints, 39th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Annual Meeting, Salt Lake City, UT, Natl. Wea. Assoc, P1.64. (Available in MS Word format)

  • Abstract:
    The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) contains official National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts produced by forecasters at local Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) and national centers on a fine-resolution grid from the next hour to 7 days in the future. To provide NDFD forecasters and users with feedback regarding the skill and accuracy of these forecasts, the Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) regularly verifies NDFD forecasts and gridded guidance from the National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD). An important element in the NDFD and NDGD is the element named "weather." This element contains forecasts of precipitation coverage or probability, precipitation type, precipitation intensity, obstruction to vision, and a few other attributes. To date, there has been no method to verify the weather element. MDL has begun developing methods to objectively evaluate these weather grids.

  • Huntemann, T. L., P. E. Shafer, K. K. Gilbert, M. R. Peroutka, 2012: MOS precipitation forecasts formatted for the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Preprints, 37th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Annual Meeting, Madison, WI, Natl. Wea. Assoc., P2.64. (Available in PDF format)

  • Abstract:
    The National Weather Service's Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has issued gridded Model Output Statistics (gridded MOS or GMOS) guidance forecasts for several years. GMOS guidance is available for most elements found in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD), including temperature, dewpoint, wind, and probabilistic guidance. These various forms of gridded guidance are part of the National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD). An important element in the NDFD is the element named "weather." It is sometimes called "predominant weather." This element contains forecasts of precipitation coverage or probability (e.g., scattered, chance, likely), precipitation type (e.g., rain, snow, ice pellets, thunder), precipitation intensity, obstruction to vision (e.g., fog), and a few other attributes. To date, gridded guidance for weather has not been available within NDGD. GMOS weather is being developed to support NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) as they prepare the NDFD. GMOS weather interprets several GMOS elements to produce a guidance grid consistent with GMOS that also closely resembles the NDFD weather forecast.



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