Ensemble Kernel Density MOS (EKDMOS) uses output from the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) along with other MOS products from MDL to produce reliable and accurate probability distributions of sensible weather elements. Grids are generated four times daily and are used primarily as an input for the National Blend of Models. To express the probability distribution, grids are produced for a number of percentiles as well as for the mean forecast.
To meet the needs of the National Blend of Models, the 00Z and 12Z runs of EKDMOS V2.2 have been moved to an earlier start time. The 06Z and 18Z runs have been added to include updated guidance. The table below shows which models and cycles are included with each run of EKDMOS.
Probabilistic guidance is produced for 2-m temperature (T), 2-m dewpoint (Td), daytime maximum temperature (Tmax), nighttime minimum temperature (Tmin), apparent temperature (AT), probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF), and wind speed (WSP). The table below show which MOS inputs are used for each element, when available.
Beginning with V2.2, the EKDMOS text products and meteograms will be run as part of the operational job stream. As a result, the format of the text products may be slightly different than previous version of EKDMOS. If you have scripts that read these files, please adjust them accordingly. Once part of the operational job stream, the text products and meteograms will be available even when the development machine is down for maintenance.
The images and text available below our hosted on our courtesy web server, generally for our own diagnostic use.
Please note: We cannot support these links outside of normal business hours.